December 5, 2004
Matheny’s Last Stand?
By Brian Walton
Tuesday, December 7 is a very important day for major league free-agents such as Cardinals catcher Mike Matheny. If the player has not agreed to a new deal by then, the team must declare whether or not it will offer arbitration. To decide which way to go, the team will make a value assessment as to what the player might make for a one-year contract as decided by an arbitrator.
Unless they fear the arbitration award would be incredibly high, the team may offer arbitration. It also assures them of receiving a compensatory draft pick if the player ends up signing elsewhere. However, if the team is fearful of losing an arbitration hearing and having to pay more than they want for the player, they may decline to offer arbitration, or threaten to do so.
In the days leading up to December 7, teams have been known to make pre-qualifying offers with a threat to not offer arbitration in an attempt to get the player to sign quickly. This strategy is most effective when a team knows the player wants to come back more than he does to test the free agent market.
Going forward, if no early deal is signed and arbitration is offered, then the ball is back in the player’s court. The player has until December 19 to decide on one of two actions. He can either accept the arbitration offer or take his chances on the free agent market. However, if the player takes the latter route, unless he signs by January 8, it precludes him from returning to his current team until after May 1.
But, let’s get back to the here and now. The situation described two paragraphs ahead of this one may best reflect the situation that is facing Matheny this weekend. Mike has made it clear that he wants to remain a Cardinal, but dismissed an earlier one-year offer from the team. The team knows he prefers to come back and want him to sign now.
I have it on good authority that the Cardinals have increased their offer to Matheny from one to two years, but to-date have stopped short of the three years that Matheny desires. Perhaps they are also using Matheny’s allegiance to the team against him by threatening to non-tender him unless he accepts their deal. I am confident of the existence of the two-year deal, but am only speculating about the threat, whether stated or implied by the team.
One can easily envision several scenarios that would explain Walt Jocketty’s motivation to resolve the situation with Matheny quickly. Even though Jocketty could conceivably have until January 8 to still sign Matheny, he may not be able to wait that long. The existence of the two-year offer also signals that the team prefers not to go do arbitration.
What else may be implied by Matheny’s two-year offer? It certainly adds credence to the line of thinking that the rumblings of interest by Arizona in catcher Yadier Molina may be real and are being strongly considered by the Cardinals.
The other rumored potential trade partner of the Cardinals, the Oakland A’s, already have a healthy stash of catchers and catching prospects. But, don’t necessarily count them out. A’s general manager Billy Beane has been known to make three-way deals or acquire players to enable him to move others.
As a result of all this, the chances have improved that the two sides can come to agreement before Tuesday, enabling Matheny to remain a Cardinal for at least two more seasons. But, it may all hinge on Matheny and Jocketty seeing eye-to-eye between now and Tuesday night.
