December 3, 2004
The Votes are In!
By Brian Walton
Now that the December 1 deadline has passed and all entries have been received, it is time to report back on our Cardinals Free Agent Forecasting Contest. Some very interesting strategies have been employed, along with what seems to be some really good guesses and some real stretches added in for good measure.
For those unfamiliar with the contest, Birdhouse readers were given the opportunity to forecast with which teams the nine Cardinals free agents would end up. The contest ends on March 1 or sooner if all nine players are placed.
The reader with the most correct answers will receive a copy of well-known author and Birdhouse contributing writer Rob Rains’ book, Cardinal Nation, the 2nd Edition. Second prize will be two “Go Cards” Rally Bands.
Most creative strategy: Reader David Sueme assumes that each of the nine free agents will be returning to the Cardinals, reasoning that the odds were most in favor of that versus trying to guess which other of the 29 teams may sign a given player. Sueme warily told me, “I expected to have to defend myself against a charge of simplistic thinking.” Almost sounds legalistic, doesn’t it? While his approach is simplistic, I admire Sueme’s desire to win. However, if the past is any indication of the future, this strategy may fail. After all, last off-season, 12 of the 16 Cardinals free agents did not return.
Most pessimistic view: Matthew Amos sees bags being packed with eight of the nine leaving the Cardinals for greener pastures elsewhere. Only John Mabry is coming back in Amos’ prediction. The others are scattered to the winds, with no two players going to the same team. As a result, Amos had the second highest tiebreaker – number of other teams’ free agents signed by the Cardinals - at seven.
Most likely staying: John Mabry returning to the Cardinals is something most everyone agrees about. Apparently, you readers think Mabry has a good thing going in St. Louis and will hold onto it. Only Scott Tomsu sees Mabry going elsewhere; back to the Bay area, but to the San Francisco Giants this time.
Highest odds prediction: After Mabry, it was a tie between Steve Kline and Ray Lankford. Only three people were not in agreement as to the specific fates of these two players. Kline is seen by a vast majority as a New York Yankee next season, while Lankford is expected to be starting his second retirement. I was one of the small minority who thought Ray might hook on somewhere for at least a spring training invite. After all, the man seems to need money for child support. I chose Tampa Bay simply because that has been a prime pre-retirement location for any number of major leaguers, ex-Cardinals included. Odds are that I am wrong.
Most likely gone: Only three readers see Matt Morris returning to the Cardinals in 2005. Less clear is exactly where Morris is going, with readers guessing he may be a member of one of nine different teams. Morris’ possible destinations include the Marlins, Phillies, Reds, Mets, Dodgers and Nationals in the National League. Also mentioned were the Yankees, Orioles and Angels in the American League. The most common thread seems to be the east coast.
Most teams mentioned: After Morris, it was Mike Matheny with eight different teams besides the Redbirds named. While a majority of the voters still see Matheny as a Cardinal next season, those who think he is leaving are totally divided as to his destination. In the NL, the Dodgers, Mets, Marlins and Diamondbacks were called out. Possible AL stops are Oakland, Toronto, Seattle and Texas.
Tiebreaker: The average number of free agents from other teams that the Cardinals are expected to sign range from a low of one to a high of eight. The average is 3.75, rounded up to four.
Other Cardinals free agents not mentioned above:
Cal Eldred: Most see him coming back to the Cardinals, with a return to the Brewers next most likely. Two readers see him unsigned/retired.
Edgar Renteria: The Cardinals’ most eligible batchelor, er free agent, is expected to return to the Redbirds by just under half the respondents. Most of the rest see Edgar as a Chicago Cub next season, with a handful of votes for the Angels. Only Ray Mileur selected Boston.
Woody Williams: There was no majority winner here, either, but Houston received the most votes, followed closely by the Cardinals. Surprisingly to me, there were many other guesses, including multiple votes for Arizona and the Texas Rangers. San Diego and Cleveland each got a mention.
Tony Womack: A majority see Womack being a Chicago Cub again in 2005, with the Cardinals picking up the remainder of the votes. Only one reader differed, putting Tony down in the land of the Tomahawk Chop, Atlanta.
As a few of the players actually get signed (or re-signed), I will provide an update on how the contestants are doing. Again, thank you for your entries and best of luck to all!
