Brian Walton
Sunday, December 26, 2004
Campaigning for a Better 2005
By Brian Walton
“Are you better off today than you were four years ago?”
How often have we heard those words spoken by incumbent politicians stumping for another term in office? While that doesn’t apply directly to the 2005 Cardinals, let’s try this alteration on for size.
“Are the 2005 St. Louis Cardinals a better team than last year’s?”
The facts tell me “no”. In all fairness, over three months remain until the start of the regular season. In that time, much could happen. But, the repeated theme of messages coming from the team is that the work is about done. Sign that second baseman and that’s probably it.
That talk makes me very uncomfortable, because in aggregate, the 2005 team looks inferior to last season’s World Championship contender. Let’s take the roster changes player by player.
Second base: To be determined versus Tony Womack. It remains to be seen, since the 2005 starter is unknown. But, at least half of the names being bandied about would be a step down from Womack, who was one of the weakest links in the 2004 lineup as it was. Edge: Incomplete.
Shortstop: David Eckstein versus Edgar Renteria. I am sure Eckstein will be a gritty player and a fan favorite. He also possesses a ring. But, no one will ever even hint that he can be the player Renteria is. Don’t get me wrong, I support the decision to let Edgar go. I just want to see that money clearly spent on improving the team. Edge: 2004.
Backup Middle Infielder: Abraham Nunez versus Hector Luna. Far from the most important spot on the team. Yet, the .238 career-hitting Nunez has no upside at this point in his career, while Luna may actually improve. However, Nunez will likely be relied upon as a late-inning defensive replacement, rather than a pinch-hitter. So, I will generously call this even. Edge: None.
Backup Middle Infielder/Outfielder: To be determined versus Marlon Anderson. Anderson began 2004 very strongly, but faltered down the stretch. Shortly after the completion of the postseason, Anderson was unceremoniously released. Whether this roster spot is filled by a fielder or the 12th pitcher is unknown at this time, but one would hope that an experienced bat could be added to the bench corps. Edge: Incomplete.
Catcher: Einar Diaz versus Mike Matheny. At face value, this is no contest. However, the wild card is clearly how far Yadier Molina will improve now that he has been given the starting role. If he can fill the considerable shoes of Matheny, this will come out fine. Again, I agree that Matheny had to go for payroll reasons, but only so the team could improve elsewhere. Overall, at this point, the catcher position is weaker year to year. Edge: 2004.
Bullpen Righty: Al Reyes versus Kiko Calero. Journeyman Reyes has been a nice find, as was Calero two years prior. But, Reyes will have to be very, very impressive in 2005 to make people forget Kiko’s considerable contributions. Edge: 2004.
Bullpen Lefty: Mike Myers versus Steve Kline. Not even close. Tony La Russa will put more pressure on lead lefty Ray King and likely try to limit Myers’ exposure to a single batter. Again, I was fine with letting Kline go so the team could improve elsewhere. Where is that, again? Edge: 2004.
Starter/Swing Man: Rick Ankiel versus Dan Haren. At this point, Haren is less questionable, but Ankiel has both higher potential risk and reward. Difficult to call. Edge: None.
Starting Pitcher: Mark Mulder versus Woody Williams. Finally, here is the improvement. The Cards got their ace. But, lingering questions remain about Mulder. Prior to both players changing teams, none other than Cardinals consultant Ron Shandler forecasted Mulder to win just three more games than Williams in 2005, with an ERA just .19 lower. The nod goes to 2005, but right now, it is a lot closer than one might expect. Edge: 2005.
Putting aside the fact that most of the Cardinals’ front-line players, with the exception of Albert Pujols, Jason Marquis and perhaps Scott Rolen, are past their career peaks, this position-by-position analysis concludes the 2005 Cardinals are inferior to last season’s model.
Granted, it will cost the team substantially more in 2005 just to stand still. Ownership has to incur all the raises built into all the backloaded contracts they’ve been doling out. But, it looks like that is starting to come home to roost in 2005.
Now, we all know that elections aren’t won in the polls and games are not played on paper. So, no one is conceding anything. I just hope we’ll see more in the upcoming 120 days to further strengthen this team to back up that campaign rhetoric with action.
